CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-08T01:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31346/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME visible in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The source appears to be two back-to-back M-class flares from AR13697 with associated dimming signature to the north as well as nice filament ejecta to the west and north. Post-eruptive arcades are beginning to show in SDO/AIA 193. There is a large EUV wave associated with this event, as best seen in SDO/AIA 211.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T19:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 05:04
Radial velocity (km/s): 1098
Longitude (deg): 51
Latitude (deg): 16
Half-angular width (deg): 49

Notes:

Lead Time: 58.77 hour(s)
Difference: -2.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-06-08T05:50Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement